Don’t forget to vote, unless you do.

So I finally voted in this election. It was a mail-in ballot, which I had to order online well in advance, in order to make sure I could send it back in time to be counted in the election.

Those of you who are longtime readers of this blog (and I don’t understand why you would be) would know that I am skeptical at best about the utility of democracy. So to be perfectly honest I don’t care if you vote in the election. Frankly, having read the shit that most of you post online, I think it would be great if the majority of you didn’t exercise your franchise. But that having been said, here are my unscientific and therefore unfalsifiable observations about the correspondence voting process.

It is an envelope, stuffed with three other envelopes, as well as a little shiny piece of paper that you have to write out the full name of your candidate on, as well as the name of the political party if there’s any confusion. Honestly, this was a pretty complicated process. Not objectively, mind you. But compared to being frog walked into a small cardboard box and putting an ‘X’ on a circle, it definitely added a “skill testing” element to it. I just figured out who my candidates were last week. And so if I was a betting man, I would suggest that this skews to heavily favor the conservative party in the event that the polls showed the two parties as being naked neck. We have to assume, notwithstanding the differences in platform, that blue voters in Canada are going to be similar to republican voters in the states. Republican voters very heavily favored going into the poll stations physically, while Democrats were largely mail-in ballot voters.

If that trend plays out here north of the border, with a mail-in ballot option that was far less advertised and politicized than it was in the states, I feel like a lot of people on the fence will simply not go to the polls. I also feel like a lot of dumb people are going to spoil their ballot. Well, maybe that’s not very charitable. Maybe not “dumb” necessarily, but just unable to remember who their candidate in their particular writing is, or know anything beyond the party leaders and the parties themselves.

So with a combination of low quarantine related turn out among those who are worried about catching a disease, as well as what I anticipate to be a high propensity of spoiled ballots, I have a feeling that if the polls are neck and neck, this is going to translate into a huge conservative majority. Like 200 seats or more. But I’m not a betting man, although I have been known to be a degenerate gambler from time to time.

 

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